This scenario is not about politics. It is not about taking sides in any dispute. It is about a physical reality that history has demonstrated repeatedly: there are conditions under which normal civil order breaks down, law enforcement becomes unavailable or unreliable, movement outside your home carries genuine risk, and the supply chains and services you depend on are disrupted — not because of infrastructure failure, but because of human conflict.
Preparing for this scenario is no different from preparing for a hurricane or a grid-down event. The supplies, the planning, and the community networks that help households survive one help them survive the others. What is distinctive is the nature of the threat — personal safety rather than infrastructure failure — and the complete unpredictability of duration.
The spectrum — from days to years
Civil unrest and societal conflict cover a wider range of possible outcomes than any other scenario in the library. Understanding the full spectrum is important because the early days of a major event look identical regardless of which end you are ultimately in.
Civil Conflict Spectrum
Days
Acute unrest — riots, protests turned violent, localized breakdown
Weeks
Extended unrest — sustained disorder, curfews, restricted movement
Months
Sustained conflict — supply chain disruption, unreliable services, active danger zones
Years
Civil war — infrastructure degraded, society restructured around survival
Short end of the spectrum
Los Angeles, 1992
Six days. 50+ deaths, $1 billion in damage, 12,000 arrests. Police withdrew from entire neighborhoods. Law enforcement simply did not arrive in Koreatown, leading business owners to organize armed rooftop defense. Order restored when National Guard arrived in force. Life resumed within a week — for most of the city.
Long end of the spectrum
Sarajevo, 1992–1996
1,425 days — nearly four years. A modern European capital of 400,000 people, cut off from food, water, electricity, and gas. Residents carried water 2 kilometers under sniper fire. Families burned furniture and floorboards for heat. The city survived through community, improvisation, and eventually international humanitarian support.
Sarajevo residents thought the barricades were temporary. They had lived through political tensions before and expected them to pass. The supplies, relationships, and plans that might have been dismissed as excessive on day three were the difference between life and death by day ninety.
Two real events — what they each taught us
Los Angeles, California
LA Riots
April–May 1992 · 6 days
Scale
50+ deaths, 12,000 arrests, $1 billion in property damage across greater Los Angeles
Law enforcement
Police withdrew from Koreatown and large areas of South Central. Business owners organized armed self-defense because no help came.
Resolution
4,000 National Guard troops and 3,500 federal soldiers restored order within days of deployment.
The lesson: Law enforcement is not evenly distributed during civil unrest. Affluent neighborhoods and business districts in Beverly Hills and West Hollywood were protected while Koreatown was left to defend itself. The business owners who had thought through what they would do if help didn't come were in a different position than those who hadn't. The households that stayed inside, stayed informed, and had supplies were not in the streets. The chaos lasted six days — a week of preparation made it survivable for most households.
Sarajevo, Bosnia & Herzegovina
Siege of Sarajevo
April 1992 – February 1996 · 1,425 days
Population
400,000 people in a modern European city, surrounded and cut off for nearly four years
Daily reality
On average 300+ shells per day. Residents carried water 2km on foot. Families burned books, boots, and flooring for heat. Snipers made any outdoor movement dangerous.
What sustained the city
Community. Neighbors who had been strangers became "like one family." The tunnel of hope. International airlift. Improvisation at every level.
The lesson: A city of 400,000 people with all the amenities of modern Europe lost electricity, water, gas, and food supply simultaneously — and survived for nearly four years through community, creativity, and will. The households that fared best were not those with the most supplies, though supplies mattered enormously in the early months. They were the ones embedded in functioning social networks — neighbors who shared resources, organized collective defense, and looked after each other's most vulnerable members. No amount of individual preparation fully substitutes for knowing your neighbors.
What makes this scenario different from the others
In a hurricane, the threat is environmental. In a grid-down event, the threat is infrastructural. In civil unrest and conflict, the threat is human — and that changes the preparation in several important ways.
Law enforcement may be absent, overwhelmed, or selectively deployed. The LA riots demonstrated clearly that police protection is not evenly distributed in a crisis. Planning that assumes law enforcement will arrive promptly is not realistic preparation for this scenario.
Movement outside carries personal safety risk, not just inconvenience. Unlike a pandemic where going out is inconvenient and potentially unhealthy, civil conflict can make going out genuinely dangerous. The calculus for every necessary trip changes completely.
Duration is unknown and unknowable at the start. Every other scenario has a rough duration profile — hurricanes last days, grid-down events last weeks to months. Civil conflict can end in days or persist for years. You must prepare for uncertainty, not for a specific timeline.
Community is not optional. Sarajevo taught this as clearly as any historical event in modern times. Individual household preparation is necessary but not sufficient. The households and neighborhoods that survived the longest and best were the ones with functioning social networks — people who shared resources, coordinated on security, looked after their most vulnerable members, and maintained collective dignity through sustained hardship.
What to prepare — the five pillars
The supply requirements for civil conflict overlap substantially with the grid-down and pandemic scenarios — water, food, medical, power. The key difference is that in this scenario, going out to resupply is not merely inconvenient or logistically difficult. It may be physically dangerous. The deeper your supply depth, the fewer trips you need to take, and the better your position as the situation unfolds.
Water — minimum 30-day supply
- One gallon per person per day stored in dedicated food-grade containers
- Water filter for tap water if municipal supply is disrupted
- Note: unlike grid-down, utilities may remain operational in short-duration civil unrest — but may not in prolonged conflict
Food — 60-day target, variety matters
- Shelf-stable proteins, grains, canned goods, and snacks — calculate by household size
- Variety is more important here than in shorter scenarios — monotony becomes a psychological burden in extended shelter-in-place
- Comfort items — coffee, tea, familiar foods — have disproportionate impact on morale in sustained hardship
- Manual can opener, basic cooking capability independent of grid and gas
Medical & prescriptions
- 90-day prescription supply for all household members — pharmacies may be closed, damaged, or unsafe to reach
- Comprehensive first aid kit including wound care beyond basic supplies — injuries from civil conflict include lacerations and trauma
- OTC medications in quantity — fever reducers, antidiarrheals, pain management
During the LA riots, Koreatown business owners organized their defense using walkie-talkies and CB radios because cell networks were overwhelmed and police radios were not accessible. During the Sarajevo siege, information about which routes were actively covered by snipers on a given day was survival-critical intelligence shared through community networks. Situational awareness is not paranoia — it is the information infrastructure that makes every other decision better.
Communication and monitoring
- Battery-powered or hand-crank NOAA weather radio — carries official emergency alerts and civil emergency broadcasts
- Large power banks for phones — cell networks may be congested but functional in short events
- Written contact list — neighbors, family, local emergency management, utility company
- Paper local maps — useful for understanding neighborhoods and potential routes without relying on GPS or internet
Information discipline
- Social media amplifies fear and spreads misinformation faster than any other channel — treat it as rumor until confirmed by official sources
- Local radio and television are typically the most reliable for geographic specificity on active danger zones
- Neighbors and community networks provide ground-level information that official channels often don't have
- Do not broadcast your own supply depth or security situation publicly — this applies to social media during an active event
Security planning in this context means thinking through how you protect your household if law enforcement is unavailable and you face a direct threat. MyPlann does not prescribe specific decisions in this area — the right approach depends on your household composition, location, values, legal situation, and specific circumstances. What we do recommend is thinking through your approach and household protocol before any emergency, not during one.
Home security layers
- Exterior lighting — motion-activated lighting at entry points is a basic and effective deterrent
- Reinforced door hardware — deadbolts, door frame reinforcement, security bars for sliding doors
- Window security — consider what visibility into and out of your home looks like at night with lights on
- Interior room — identify which room in your home is most defensible if you need to consolidate
- Have a plan for what you will do if someone is actively attempting to enter your home — do not make that decision for the first time in the moment
Legal self-defense considerations
- Know the self-defense and home defense laws in your state — they vary significantly
- If you own a firearm, ensure all household members who might use it are trained and that it is safely stored
- Non-lethal options — pepper spray, personal alarms — have a role for household members who are not comfortable with firearms
- Any self-defense decision has legal consequences — think through what documentation and evidence you would preserve
If you need to leave
- Plan routes in advance — know alternate ways to reach critical destinations without traveling through known hotspots
- Travel in daylight whenever possible during active unrest
- Have a vehicle in good working order with a full tank before any anticipated period of instability
- Know where you would go if your home becomes untenable — family, friends, pre-identified alternative
The Sarajevo siege produced one of the most well-documented examples of how human community functions under extreme and sustained pressure. Neighbors who had been strangers before the conflict became, in the words of one survivor, "like one family." They shared resources, organized collective tasks, watched over each other's most vulnerable members, and maintained human dignity through four years of siege. This dynamic is not unique to Sarajevo — it appears in virtually every prolonged conflict studied by sociologists and emergency management researchers. The strongest predictor of household survival in sustained civil conflict is not supply depth. It is social network strength.
Building community before it's needed
- Know your immediate neighbors — name, household composition, any special needs. This is worth doing regardless of any emergency scenario.
- Identify neighbors with relevant skills — medical background, mechanical knowledge, security experience
- Have at least one trusted neighbor with whom you've discussed mutual assistance in an emergency
- Know your neighborhood's existing community organization — block association, neighborhood watch, community Facebook group — and be connected to it before an emergency
- Consider participating in local CERT (Community Emergency Response Team) training — it builds both skills and community relationships simultaneously
What community provides that supplies cannot
- Distributed watch capability — more eyes on more access points than any individual household can manage
- Resource sharing — a neighbor's generator, medical knowledge, or specific food item can be more valuable than additional personal supply
- Psychological resilience — isolation is a significant risk factor in extended hardship; community sustains mental health
- Labor — physical tasks of community defense and maintenance require more than one or two people
- Collective bargaining and resource acquisition — a coordinated community can negotiate with and receive assistance more effectively than isolated households
Unlike a hurricane where evacuation windows are defined by storm track and timing, civil conflict evacuation decisions are more ambiguous and more consequential. Leaving too early means abandoning your home and community potentially unnecessarily. Leaving too late means attempting to move through active danger. The households that navigate this decision best are the ones that have defined their departure triggers in advance — specific, concrete conditions that, if met, mean it is time to go.
Go-bag — always maintained, near the exit
- 72 hours of water and food per person, no cooking required
- All prescription medications with written list of names, dosages, and prescribers
- Copies of critical documents — ID, insurance, deed or lease, medical records — in a waterproof pouch
- Cash in small bills — electronic payments may be unavailable
- Phone charger and large power bank
- Change of clothing, sturdy shoes, and a warm layer per person
- Basic first aid kit
Define your departure triggers now
- Active violence within a defined distance of your home (you set this threshold in advance)
- Authorities issue a specific evacuation order for your area
- Your household's ability to defend itself is compromised
- Supply of essential medications is running low and resupply is not accessible
- A trusted community member or network signals that conditions in the area are deteriorating beyond a threshold you've agreed on
Destination and route
- Know where you are going — family, friends, or pre-identified location outside the likely impact area
- Primary and alternate routes mapped on paper, not just in a navigation app
- Vehicle maintained in good working order; fuel tank above half at all times during a period of elevated tension
- Coordinate departure with any community members who might travel together — there is safety in numbers on the road as well as at home
A note on this scenario's tone
MyPlann does not take positions on the political or social causes of civil conflict. This scenario exists because history has shown that civil unrest and conflict occur, that ordinary households are affected by them, and that the same physical preparation that helps in other emergencies helps here too. The preparation described on this page is not about taking sides in any dispute. It is about ensuring that your household can sustain itself, stay safe, and maintain the ability to help your community regardless of what circumstances unfold around you.
Built-in Assumptions & Limitations
- This scenario covers the full spectrum from acute civil unrest (days) to sustained societal conflict (months to years). The planning framework is calibrated for meaningful duration — weeks to months — rather than the short end of the spectrum, which the FEMA baseline addresses adequately.
- Utilities — electricity, water, natural gas — are assumed to remain operational in short-duration events. In sustained conflict, infrastructure degradation becomes a real risk and the grid-down scenario's preparation framework applies in parallel.
- Law enforcement is modeled as unreliable or selectively deployed, not uniformly absent. Most households in most civil unrest events are not directly threatened — the risk is variable by geography and circumstance.
- This scenario does not model interstate or international conflict involving military assets — that falls under the Nuclear War scenario and associated planning.
- Security planning in this scenario is highly individual and jurisdiction-specific. MyPlann does not provide legal advice. Know the laws in your state regarding self-defense, home defense, and firearm ownership and use.
- Community preparation — knowing neighbors, building mutual assistance relationships — is identified as the highest-impact preparation for the longer end of this scenario. It cannot be modeled quantitatively but is included as a planning pillar because the historical evidence for its importance is overwhelming.
You cannot know on day one which end of the spectrum you are in.
MyPlann evaluates your civil conflict readiness across all five pillars — supplies, information, security, community, and evacuation — so your household is prepared for both the short event and the long one.