The earthquake scenario is unlike anything else in the MyPlann library. It is not a slow-building crisis you can monitor and prepare for as it approaches. It is not a situation where you can decide the night before whether to stay or go. There is no window to top off your gas tank, fill your bathtubs, or buy extra food. The preparation either exists before the ground moves, or it doesn't exist at all.
What makes an earthquake different from every other scenario
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Zero warning
Unlike hurricanes, floods, or even most disease outbreaks, earthquakes provide no advance notice. Current science cannot predict them. You either prepared before it happened or you didn't.
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Entire community hit at once
A hurricane affects a region gradually as it moves. An earthquake hits everyone in the affected area simultaneously. Every household, hospital, fire station, and emergency service is dealing with the same event at the same moment.
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Fire is the hidden secondary killer
Ruptured gas mains ignite. Water mains break, leaving firefighters without supply. Loma Prieta 1989 produced at least 27 fires across San Francisco. Citizens formed bucket brigades because hydrants had no water pressure.
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Your home may be uninhabitable
After Northridge, buildings were red-tagged (cannot enter) or yellow-tagged (limited entry) across the city. You may survive the quake but be unable to re-enter your own home. That possibility requires a plan.
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The ground itself becomes dangerous
Liquefaction turns saturated soil into a temporary liquid under shaking. Buildings sink. Roads buckle. Foundations fail. Christchurch 2011 produced 400,000 tonnes of silt that had to be cleared by hand from residential streets.
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Aftershocks continue for months
Northridge produced 3,000 aftershocks in the first three weeks. Christchurch was still experiencing damaging aftershocks more than a year later. Each one further stresses already-weakened structures.
The timing of Northridge 1994 almost certainly saved thousands of lives. It struck at 4:31 in the morning on a federal holiday — most people were home in bed, not on the freeways that collapsed or in the parking structures that fell. The same earthquake at 8:30 on a Tuesday morning would have been a different disaster entirely.
Three real earthquakes — what they each taught us
Southern California
Northridge
January 1994 · M6.7 · 4:31 AM
Displacement
125,000 people made at least temporarily homeless
Water supply
Three of four LA aqueducts severed. Officials said water supply would last 7–10 days.
Infrastructure
7 major freeway bridges collapsed. 212 bridges damaged. Some routes closed for months.
The lesson: A M6.7 earthquake — not even the largest California is capable of — displaced 125,000 people, severed the water supply, and collapsed freeways that took months to repair. It occurred on a previously unknown fault. The building that killed the most people was a soft-story apartment complex — first-floor parking, upper-floor living — a design pattern still common in older urban buildings throughout the country. The aftershocks continued for weeks, making already-damaged structures progressively more dangerous.
New Zealand
Christchurch
February 2011 · M6.3 · 12:51 PM
Water and sewage
80% of the city's below-ground water and sewerage infrastructure was severely damaged. Parts of the city had no water for up to 3 weeks.
Liquefaction
400,000 tonnes of silt deposited on residential streets by liquefaction — cleared by 80,000+ volunteer hours over months.
Homes
10,000 homes demolished. 100,000 damaged. State of emergency lasted over two months.
The lesson: Christchurch was a M6.3 — smaller than Northridge — but it struck at just 5 km depth directly under the city. The shallowness amplified everything. 80% of the underground water and sewerage network was destroyed, leaving parts of the city without any running water for up to three weeks. Liquefaction turned residential streets into mud. The state of national emergency lasted from February 23 to April 30. Economic recovery is expected to take decades. The lesson is that magnitude does not determine outcome — depth, geology, and proximity to population centers do.
San Francisco Bay Area
Loma Prieta
October 1989 · M6.9 · 5:04 PM
Fire
At least 27 fires broke out across San Francisco from ruptured gas mains. Citizens formed bucket brigades because water mains were broken.
Emergency services
911 equipment room caught fire. Emergency calls were sporadic for 3 days. Citizens had to rely on street fire alarm boxes.
Power
Knocked out power to San Francisco — restored to most within 3 days. Relatively fast by earthquake standards.
The lesson: Loma Prieta is the closest thing to a "good" major earthquake outcome in a large urban area — 63 deaths, power restored in days, $6 billion in damage. But it also produced 27 fires from broken gas mains, left firefighters without water pressure, and knocked out 911 service for three days. Had it been larger, closer to the Bay Area's urban core, or struck the full length of the San Andreas rather than a 30-mile segment, the outcome would have been categorically different. Loma Prieta is a preview, not a benchmark.
What fails — and in what order
The shaking — 10 to 60 seconds
Everything loose becomes a projectile
The shaking itself lasts 10 to 60 seconds in a major event. Unsecured furniture tips. Shelving collapses. Cabinets open and empty. Windows break. Most injuries during the shaking come from falling objects and broken glass — not structural collapse. Drop, cover, and hold on under a solid table or against an interior wall, away from windows. Do not run outside during shaking.
Immediately after
Check for gas. Don't use switches or flames.
The moment the shaking stops, gas leaks are the most immediate danger. If you smell gas, get out and leave the door open behind you — do not operate light switches, lighters, or anything that could create a spark. Gas shutoff is at your meter outside. Know where it is and have a wrench stored nearby before an earthquake happens — you will not have time to find one after. Do not turn gas back on yourself; that requires the utility company.
Hours 0–6
Emergency services overwhelmed everywhere at once
Unlike a hurricane where emergency services can pre-position and stage resources, an earthquake hits the entire response infrastructure simultaneously. Fire stations, hospitals, police dispatch — all are dealing with structural damage, personnel injuries, and thousands of simultaneous calls. In major events, residents have historically waited hours for emergency response. Self-rescue and neighbor-to-neighbor assistance is not a backup — it is the primary response mechanism for the first several hours.
Hours 0–48
Water system — from questionable to absent
Water mains crack under ground movement. Pumping stations lose power. In a major event, municipal water pressure may drop or disappear within hours. Christchurch lost 80% of its water and sewerage infrastructure in a M6.3 earthquake. Northridge lost three of four aqueducts. Stored water isn't a precaution — it's the only reliable supply you have. Fill all containers and bathtubs immediately after shaking stops, before pressure drops.
Hours to days
Your home may be red-tagged
After Northridge, building inspectors fanned out across Los Angeles tagging structures. Red-tagged means unsafe — you cannot enter or stay in the building. Yellow-tagged means limited entry permitted. If your home is red-tagged, everything you need must either already be with you or be retrievable in a single supervised visit. A go-bag near the door and important documents in a portable waterproof case are not optional extras in earthquake country — they are standard operating procedure.
Days to weeks
Roads cut. Supply chains disrupted.
Northridge collapsed seven major freeway bridges. Loma Prieta took down part of the Bay Bridge and the Cypress Viaduct. In a major earthquake, roads and bridges that looked fine may be closed for structural assessment or may have suffered invisible damage. Supply chains serving grocery stores and pharmacies run on those roads. The planning assumption is that normal resupply may be disrupted for days to weeks in the immediate area.
Weeks to months
Aftershocks keep coming
Aftershocks are not a formality. Northridge produced 3,000 in the first three weeks. Christchurch suffered damaging aftershocks for more than a year after the main event. Each aftershock stresses structures already weakened by the main shock. A building that survived the initial quake and was yellow-tagged may be red-tagged after a significant aftershock. Mental resilience for continued uncertainty is as real a preparation requirement as physical supplies.
What to prepare — the six pillars
The 72-hour self-reliance window for earthquakes is not a planning guideline — it is a realistic assessment of how long it takes a large-scale simultaneous emergency to begin reaching individuals. In Loma Prieta, 911 was down for three days. In Northridge, hospitals were evacuating their own buildings. The practical implication is that your household needs the ability to provide basic first aid, search for and assist trapped neighbors, and sustain itself without outside support for at least three days.
Immediate safety — before anything else
- Drop, cover, and hold during shaking — under a sturdy table or against an interior wall, away from windows
- Check for injuries — do not move anyone with a potential spinal injury unless in immediate danger
- Check for gas leaks — smell before flipping any switches. If you smell gas, exit and leave the door open.
- Gas shutoff wrench stored near the meter — know where your shutoff is before an earthquake happens
- Check for fire — particularly in the kitchen and near any gas appliances
- Check structural damage before re-entering any room — look for cracks in walls, ceiling sag, tilting
First aid capability
- Comprehensive first aid kit — earthquake injuries are frequently cuts, lacerations, and crush injuries from falling objects
- At least one household member trained in basic first aid and CPR
- Trauma supplies beyond a standard first aid kit: tourniquet, hemostatic gauze, Israeli bandage
- Work gloves — for moving debris safely
- Sturdy closed-toe shoes stored near each bed — broken glass is a primary post-earthquake injury, particularly at night
Unlike a hurricane where you have days to fill containers, an earthquake gives no warning. Your stored water is your entire supply. Fill bathtubs and all available containers immediately after shaking stops — before municipal pressure drops. Pre-positioned storage is the only reliable approach.
Pre-positioned storage targets
- Minimum one gallon per person per day for 14 days — stored in dedicated food-grade containers before any earthquake
- WaterBOB bathtub liners or similar — stored and accessible, can be filled in the minutes immediately after a quake
- Water filter rated for bacteria — for use when water pressure returns but quality is uncertain
- Water purification tablets as backup
- Extra water for pets
If water pressure fails
- Do not use toilets if you suspect sewage pipe damage — use bucket and bag system until pipes are confirmed intact
- Hand sanitizer and moist towelettes for hygiene when water is scarce
- Know where your nearest emergency water distribution point will be — counties typically designate these in advance
The earthquake food supply challenge is more constrained than a hurricane. Gas may be shut off for safety. Power may be out. Cooking outdoors requires clear, safe outdoor space that may not exist after structural damage. The simplest and most reliable earthquake food strategy is no-cook shelf-stable supplies that require nothing beyond opening.
No-cook shelf-stable priorities
- Canned proteins — tuna, salmon, chicken, beans — eaten directly from the can if needed
- Peanut butter — calorie-dense, no preparation, long shelf life
- Crackers, nuts, dried fruit, jerky — sustained energy with no preparation
- Canned soups and stews — self-contained meals
- Comfort items — coffee, tea, familiar snacks — matter significantly after a traumatic event
- Manual can opener — stored with food supplies, not in a drawer that may be inaccessible
If cooking becomes possible
- Propane camp stove for outdoor use once gas safety is confirmed
- Instant oatmeal, pasta, rice for when hot water becomes available
After Northridge, thousands of people could not re-enter their homes for days or weeks. After Christchurch, 10,000 homes were eventually demolished. The possibility that your home will be deemed unsafe to enter is not remote — it is a documented outcome of major urban earthquakes. Having a go-bag already assembled, stored near the exit, and ready to grab in under two minutes is not a precaution reserved for hurricane season. In earthquake country, it is always the season.
Go-bag essentials — grab in under 2 minutes
- Water — at least one day's supply per person in portable bottles
- Three days of shelf-stable food, no cooking required
- All prescription medications with a complete written list of names, dosages, and prescribers
- Copies of critical documents in a waterproof pouch — ID, insurance cards, deed or lease, medical records, emergency contacts
- Cash in small bills — card readers require power and network connectivity
- Phone charger and large power bank, fully charged
- Change of clothing, sturdy shoes, and a warm layer per person
- Flashlight and headlamp with extra batteries
- Basic first aid kit
- Work gloves — for debris navigation
Documents — waterproof storage, not just a drawer
- Insurance policies including homeowner's, renter's, and health — claim numbers matter immediately
- Birth certificates, passports, Social Security cards
- Property deed or rental lease — proof of residence is required for many assistance programs
- A household photo inventory — photos or video of valuables, stored in cloud backup, invaluable for insurance claims
Power restoration after earthquakes varies more than after hurricanes — it depends on whether the physical grid infrastructure survived the ground movement, not just whether lines came down. Loma Prieta restored most power in three days; Christchurch had outages lasting weeks due to underground cable damage. Communication is also less reliable — 911 was sporadic for three days after Loma Prieta.
Power and lighting
- LED lanterns per living area with spare batteries — immediate darkness is disorienting and dangerous in a damaged home
- Headlamp per household member — essential for hands-free debris navigation and first aid
- Large power bank, kept charged — for phones when grid is out
- Battery-powered or hand-crank NOAA weather radio — for official emergency information when cell service is congested or down
- Solar charger if in a sunny climate — useful for extended outages
Communication plan
- Written contact list on paper — phones may work but networks will be congested. Text uses less bandwidth than voice calls.
- Designated out-of-state contact — local lines are often overwhelmed but long-distance calls can sometimes get through when local cannot
- Household meeting point designated in advance — in case family members are separated when the quake hits
- Know your neighborhood's CERT (Community Emergency Response Team) contact if one exists in your area
Unlike hurricane preparation, which has a window of days once a storm is tracked, earthquake preparation cannot happen reactively. There is no warning. Everything on this list must be completed during ordinary, uneventful times — which is the only time available to do it.
Secure the home
- Strap tall furniture — bookcases, refrigerators, water heaters, filing cabinets — to wall studs with L-brackets or furniture straps
- Install cabinet latches on kitchen and bathroom cabinets — prevents contents from falling out and blocking exits
- Secure the water heater to the wall with seismic straps — a tipped water heater is a fire and flood hazard
- Move heavy items to lower shelves — reduces injury risk from falling objects
- Know where and how to shut off gas, water, and electricity at the main — and have the necessary tools stored nearby
- Identify safe spots in each room: under a sturdy table, against an interior wall away from windows
- Identify dangerous spots: near windows, under heavy hanging objects, near tall unsecured furniture
Structural considerations
- If your home was built before 1980 and has not been seismically retrofitted, consult a structural engineer — older wood-frame homes with cripple walls and soft-story buildings are the most vulnerable building types in urban earthquakes
- If you rent, understand that your landlord's structural decisions affect your safety — research your building's construction date and type
- Chimneys are among the first things to fail in earthquakes — know your chimney's condition and do not use a fireplace after a quake until inspected
Aftershocks require ongoing vigilance
A structure that survived the main shock may fail during a significant aftershock. After any major earthquake, treat damaged or partially collapsed structures as dangerous regardless of whether they are standing. Do not enter red-tagged buildings. Treat yellow-tagged buildings with caution. If aftershocks are ongoing, sleep away from tall furniture, near ground-floor exits, with shoes accessible.
Built-in Assumptions & Limitations
- This scenario assumes a major seismic event — M6.5 or higher — with an epicenter within or close to a populated area. Depth, local geology, and proximity to population centers are as important as magnitude in determining damage.
- The first 72 hours are modeled as largely self-reliant. Emergency services are assumed to be overwhelmed and delayed in reaching individual households.
- Municipal water is assumed to be potentially disrupted immediately upon ground movement. Well water with electric pumps is assumed to fail upon power loss.
- Power outages are modeled as 1–14 days depending on infrastructure damage. Underground electrical systems (common in urban areas) are particularly vulnerable to ground movement.
- Gas is assumed shut off immediately if leaks are detected, which is often a precautionary shutdown affecting entire neighborhoods even where individual lines are intact.
- The scenario does not model tsunami risk from offshore earthquakes — that is a distinct event requiring separate preparation, particularly for coastal Pacific communities.
- Building construction date and type are the primary determinants of structural outcome. Modern code-built structures in California and New Zealand perform substantially better than pre-1980 construction.
- The three reference earthquakes — Northridge 1994, Christchurch 2011, and Loma Prieta 1989 — are illustrative of the range of outcomes. They are not predictions for any specific future event.
The preparation either exists before the ground moves, or it doesn't.
There is no window to prepare once an earthquake starts. MyPlann evaluates your household's earthquake readiness across all six pillars so you know exactly where your gaps are — while there is still time to close them.